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The reported anomaly is certainly striking and unusual; normally, even a strong voter antipathy toward a Presidential candidate would be overwhelmed by the number of voters who skip the minor races. The following is an attempt at analysis.
County results are listed by vote count, percentage, and percentage ranking for Kerry and Conally. Percentage and percentage rank are also listed for the combined vote for Presidential candidates Badnarik and Peroutka, for reasons explained below. The Conally vote surplus or deficit, as compared to Kerry, is computed; that figure, as a percentage of the Kerry vote, determines the order in which counties appear. Ballots with no vote in the Presidential race are also considered, and their rate of occurrence ranked.
Several explanations are possible:
The source data comes from the Ohio Secretary of States website, and this analysis was obtained by a single program run against the original captured data.
* Write-in candidates (notably including David Keith Cobb, the Green Party candidate) are not a factor in the punch-card scrambling, which only involves those on the ballot.
Analysis of the Kerry/Conally vote anomaly Ohio 2004 88 counties | ||||||||||||||||
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County | Kerry | Conally | Conally surplus | Minor candidates | Presidential non-votes | |||||||||||
votes | % | rank | votes | % | rank | votes | % | % | rank | % | rank | |||||
Mercer | 5,118 | 24.50 | 86 | 6,919 | 41.01 | 55 | 0.574 | 21 | 443 | 0.021 | 29 | |||||
Auglaize | 5,903 | 25.63 | 85 | 7,545 | 39.01 | 66 | 0.491 | 40 | 263 | 0.011 | 76 | |||||
Shelby | 6,535 | 28.59 | 82 | 8,043 | 44.56 | 28 | 0.508 | 37 | 432 | 0.019 | 43 | |||||
Clermont | 25,887 | 29.06 | 81 | 30,068 | 40.82 | 58 | 0.267 | 86 | 733 | 0.008 | 86 | |||||
Darke | 7,846 | 29.82 | 77 | 9,021 | 41.41 | 51 | 0.612 | 18 | 709 | 0.026 | 12 | |||||
Van Wert | 4,095 | 27.62 | 83 | 4,587 | 37.42 | 72 | 0.364 | 76 | 698 | 0.045 | 2 | |||||
Putnam | 4,392 | 23.30 | 88 | 4,846 | 34.02 | 85 | 0.456 | 56 | 320 | 0.017 | 52 | |||||
Butler | 56,243 | 33.71 | 71 | 61,559 | 47.37 | 20 | 0.418 | 66 | 2,165 | 0.013 | 68 | |||||
Warren | 26,044 | 27.58 | 84 | 28,470 | 38.77 | 69 | 0.357 | 77 | 1,090 | 0.011 | 74 | |||||
Brown | 7,140 | 35.89 | 61 | 7,498 | 46.69 | 23 | 0.528 | 34 | 389 | 0.019 | 38 | |||||
Highland | 6,194 | 33.52 | 74 | 6,298 | 42.20 | 44 | 0.411 | 67 | 383 | 0.020 | 32 | |||||
Miami | 17,606 | 34.01 | 69 | 17,770 | 41.58 | 50 | 0.307 | 84 | 344 | 0.007 | 88 | |||||
Paulding | 3,610 | 36.54 | 57 | 3,592 | 45.59 | 27 | 0.638 | 16 | 206 | 0.020 | 31 | |||||
Union | 6,665 | 29.45 | 78 | 6,625 | 36.86 | 77 | 0.424 | 64 | 280 | 0.012 | 71 | |||||
Logan | 6,825 | 31.90 | 76 | 6,773 | 38.91 | 67 | 0.477 | 52 | 317 | 0.015 | 59 | |||||
Clinton | 5,417 | 29.42 | 79 | 5,309 | 36.30 | 79 | 0.315 | 83 | 260 | 0.014 | 61 | |||||
Crawford | 7,773 | 35.65 | 63 | 7,557 | 41.32 | 52 | 0.656 | 14 | 488 | 0.022 | 22 | |||||
Adams | 4,281 | 35.67 | 62 | 4,099 | 44.56 | 29 | 0.550 | 28 | 373 | 0.030 | 7 | |||||
Allen | 16,470 | 33.44 | 75 | 15,565 | 36.53 | 78 | 0.402 | 70 | 673 | 0.013 | 63 | |||||
Williams | 6,481 | 34.77 | 66 | 6,106 | 40.73 | 59 | 0.622 | 17 | 352 | 0.019 | 44 | |||||
Defiance | 6,975 | 37.67 | 52 | 6,501 | 42.55 | 40 | 0.778 | 5 | 337 | 0.018 | 46 | |||||
Hardin | 4,891 | 36.52 | 58 | 4,554 | 40.88 | 56 | 0.448 | 60 | 179 | 0.013 | 66 | |||||
Hancock | 10,352 | 29.06 | 80 | 9,595 | 34.00 | 86 | 0.393 | 73 | 307 | 0.009 | 84 | |||||
Preble | 7,274 | 34.43 | 67 | 6,741 | 40.15 | 60 | 0.563 | 23 | 432 | 0.020 | 33 | |||||
Morrow | 5,775 | 35.37 | 65 | 5,281 | 40.03 | 61 | 0.484 | 44 | 366 | 0.022 | 21 | |||||
Champaign | 6,968 | 37.11 | 55 | 6,221 | 41.86 | 45 | 0.479 | 51 | 305 | 0.016 | 57 | |||||
Greene | 30,531 | 38.51 | 48 | 27,152 | 43.48 | 36 | 0.453 | 58 | 1,320 | 0.016 | 54 | |||||
Gallia | 5,366 | 38.35 | 49 | 4,754 | 44.11 | 30 | 0.364 | 75 | 402 | 0.028 | 10 | |||||
Madison | 6,203 | 35.65 | 64 | 5,481 | 40.88 | 57 | 0.448 | 59 | 386 | 0.022 | 23 | |||||
Holmes | 2,697 | 24.04 | 87 | 2,350 | 29.27 | 88 | 0.481 | 47 | 569 | 0.048 | 1 | |||||
Ashland | 8,576 | 34.33 | 68 | 7,438 | 35.76 | 80 | 0.769 | 6 | 760 | 0.030 | 8 | |||||
Meigs | 4,438 | 41.20 | 41 | 3,805 | 48.30 | 15 | 0.566 | 22 | 266 | 0.024 | 15 | |||||
Henry | 5,111 | 33.84 | 70 | 4,346 | 34.28 | 84 | 0.609 | 19 | 300 | 0.019 | 36 | |||||
Pickaway | 8,579 | 37.54 | 53 | 7,269 | 41.74 | 46 | 0.490 | 41 | 227 | 0.010 | 78 | |||||
Fayette | 4,334 | 36.86 | 56 | 3,658 | 38.74 | 70 | 0.400 | 71 | 197 | 0.016 | 53 | |||||
Delaware | 27,048 | 33.62 | 72 | 22,824 | 37.40 | 73 | 0.327 | 82 | 719 | 0.009 | 83 | |||||
Columbiana | 23,429 | 47.36 | 23 | 19,747 | 47.54 | 19 | 0.556 | 26 | 892 | 0.018 | 47 | |||||
Hamilton | 199,679 | 47.09 | 24 | 166,545 | 48.95 | 12 | 0.387 | 74 | 9,038 | 0.021 | 27 | |||||
Muskingum | 16,421 | 42.25 | 38 | 13,641 | 42.78 | 38 | 0.489 | 42 | 700 | 0.018 | 48 | |||||
Lawrence | 12,120 | 43.74 | 32 | 10,049 | 48.32 | 14 | 0.487 | 43 | 708 | 0.025 | 13 | |||||
Licking | 30,053 | 37.84 | 51 | 24,903 | 39.95 | 62 | 0.439 | 62 | 1,119 | 0.014 | 62 | |||||
Geauga | 19,850 | 39.35 | 47 | 16,334 | 42.26 | 42 | 0.410 | 68 | 617 | 0.012 | 72 | |||||
Richland | 24,638 | 39.84 | 45 | 20,271 | 41.04 | 54 | 0.534 | 32 | 1,313 | 0.021 | 28 | |||||
Marion | 11,930 | 40.78 | 42 | 9,776 | 39.27 | 65 | 0.537 | 31 | 398 | 0.013 | 64 | |||||
Jackson | 5,700 | 39.77 | 46 | 4,637 | 42.24 | 43 | 0.342 | 80 | 398 | 0.027 | 11 | |||||
Fulton | 8,224 | 37.46 | 54 | 6,659 | 38.80 | 68 | 0.405 | 69 | 278 | 0.013 | 70 | |||||
Belmont | 17,576 | 52.75 | 13 | 14,169 | 51.81 | 4 | 0.462 | 55 | 773 | 0.023 | 18 | |||||
Wood | 29,401 | 46.41 | 27 | 23,675 | 46.36 | 25 | 0.553 | 27 | 757 | 0.012 | 73 | |||||
Vinton | 2,651 | 44.72 | 28 | 2,132 | 48.18 | 17 | 0.472 | 53 | 230 | 0.037 | 4 | |||||
Tuscarawas | 18,853 | 43.94 | 31 | 15,089 | 42.45 | 41 | 0.522 | 35 | 854 | 0.020 | 35 | |||||
Morgan | 2,875 | 42.89 | 35 | 2,300 | 43.82 | 33 | 1.044 | 2 | 198 | 0.029 | 9 | |||||
Fairfield | 24,783 | 36.51 | 59 | 19,769 | 37.13 | 75 | 0.561 | 24 | 884 | 0.013 | 67 | |||||
Jefferson | 19,024 | 52.30 | 14 | 15,147 | 49.34 | 10 | 0.445 | 61 | 804 | 0.022 | 24 | |||||
Wyandot | 3,708 | 33.58 | 73 | 2,952 | 32.31 | 87 | 0.733 | 7 | 214 | 0.019 | 39 | |||||
Harrison | 3,780 | 46.61 | 26 | 2,999 | 43.98 | 32 | 0.678 | 10 | 203 | 0.024 | 14 | |||||
Knox | 9,820 | 36.31 | 60 | 7,786 | 37.06 | 76 | 0.558 | 25 | 257 | 0.009 | 80 | |||||
Noble | 2,654 | 40.58 | 44 | 2,097 | 42.69 | 39 | 0.688 | 9 | 254 | 0.037 | 3 | |||||
Ashtabula | 24,060 | 52.99 | 12 | 18,985 | 51.00 | 5 | 0.674 | 11 | 1,031 | 0.022 | 20 | |||||
Perry | 7,257 | 47.78 | 21 | 5,645 | 46.08 | 26 | 0.500 | 38 | 283 | 0.018 | 45 | |||||
Washington | 12,538 | 41.49 | 39 | 9,666 | 41.72 | 47 | 0.483 | 45 | 278 | 0.009 | 81 | |||||
Clark | 33,535 | 48.74 | 17 | 25,760 | 46.91 | 21 | 0.481 | 48 | 1,317 | 0.019 | 41 | |||||
Medina | 36,272 | 42.73 | 36 | 27,747 | 43.69 | 34 | 0.483 | 46 | 1,138 | 0.013 | 65 | |||||
Carroll | 6,300 | 44.64 | 29 | 4,811 | 39.82 | 63 | 0.822 | 3 | 304 | 0.021 | 26 | |||||
Pike | 5,989 | 47.62 | 22 | 4,560 | 46.91 | 22 | 0.533 | 33 | 397 | 0.031 | 6 | |||||
Coshocton | 7,378 | 42.64 | 37 | 5,614 | 39.73 | 64 | 0.480 | 49 | 333 | 0.019 | 40 | |||||
Guernsey | 7,768 | 43.54 | 34 | 5,907 | 41.20 | 53 | 0.605 | 20 | 339 | 0.019 | 42 | |||||
Hocking | 6,175 | 46.78 | 25 | 4,692 | 43.63 | 35 | 0.667 | 13 | 285 | 0.021 | 25 | |||||
Seneca | 10,957 | 40.60 | 43 | 8,297 | 37.22 | 74 | 0.545 | 29 | 616 | 0.022 | 19 | |||||
Montgomery | 142,997 | 50.60 | 15 | 108,260 | 48.40 | 13 | 0.427 | 63 | 5,062 | 0.018 | 50 | |||||
Portage | 40,675 | 53.07 | 11 | 30,274 | 49.66 | 8 | 0.497 | 39 | 987 | 0.013 | 69 | |||||
Sandusky | 12,686 | 43.72 | 33 | 9,360 | 38.36 | 71 | 0.348 | 79 | 444 | 0.015 | 58 | |||||
Ottawa | 11,118 | 47.80 | 19 | 8,201 | 41.68 | 48 | 0.284 | 85 | 209 | 0.009 | 82 | |||||
Wayne | 19,786 | 38.16 | 50 | 14,589 | 35.31 | 81 | 0.349 | 78 | 847 | 0.016 | 56 | |||||
Scioto | 16,827 | 47.80 | 20 | 12,400 | 44.09 | 31 | 0.332 | 81 | 840 | 0.023 | 17 | |||||
Ross | 13,978 | 44.14 | 30 | 10,220 | 42.87 | 37 | 1.459 | 1 | 308 | 0.010 | 79 | |||||
Lucas | 132,715 | 60.21 | 5 | 95,157 | 54.25 | 3 | 0.244 | 87 | 1,550 | 0.007 | 87 | |||||
Lake | 59,049 | 48.47 | 18 | 41,975 | 47.74 | 18 | 0.470 | 54 | 1,039 | 0.008 | 85 | |||||
Huron | 10,568 | 41.35 | 40 | 7,487 | 35.19 | 82 | 0.673 | 12 | 536 | 0.021 | 30 | |||||
Stark | 95,337 | 50.59 | 16 | 67,183 | 41.61 | 49 | 0.480 | 50 | 3,322 | 0.017 | 51 | |||||
Lorain | 78,970 | 56.11 | 7 | 54,863 | 49.57 | 9 | 0.397 | 72 | 2,301 | 0.016 | 55 | |||||
Athens | 18,998 | 63.23 | 2 | 13,150 | 59.37 | 2 | 0.656 | 15 | 541 | 0.018 | 49 | |||||
Monroe | 4,243 | 54.90 | 8 | 2,910 | 50.85 | 7 | 0.802 | 4 | 260 | 0.033 | 5 | |||||
Cuyahoga | 448,503 | 66.57 | 1 | 303,995 | 59.72 | 1 | 0.540 | 30 | 13,478 | 0.020 | 34 | |||||
Mahoning | 83,194 | 62.60 | 3 | 56,373 | 50.97 | 6 | 0.709 | 8 | 1,385 | 0.010 | 77 | |||||
Summit | 156,587 | 56.67 | 6 | 103,787 | 48.26 | 16 | 0.422 | 65 | 5,415 | 0.019 | 37 | |||||
Trumbull | 66,673 | 61.65 | 4 | 43,614 | 49.33 | 11 | 0.455 | 57 | 2,602 | 0.023 | 16 | |||||
Franklin | 285,801 | 54.35 | 9 | 179,640 | 46.50 | 24 | 0.522 | 36 | 7,748 | 0.015 | 60 | |||||
Erie | 21,421 | 53.44 | 10 | 11,867 | 34.31 | 83 | 0.167 | 88 | 461 | 0.011 | 75 |